This Probably Stolen appraisal guide covers the job that earns money without any stock: customers bring you an item, you work out what it is worth, and they pay you for the slip. The developer has published almost nothing about the numbers, so the page sticks to the official store text, the patch notes and the launch-week Steam guides and threads, and says where a figure is one player's report. Appraisal is also how you avoid overpaying, because the store page warns that rare items need proper appraisal.
Probably Stolen appraisal guide: how customers arrive
Appraisal customers come from the appraisal board, which you get when you join the appraisers. A Steam thread explains the catch: you have to put the appraisal certificate from the board into your display case before customers start asking, and they stay infrequent. The display case guide by The Exceptional Fisherman gives the roll: 33 to 55% depending on the board's tier, plus 16 to 27% each time it fails to bring a customer.
The same guide explains why a board can seem to do nothing. Your display case expects a limited number of normal customers a day, up to four, and signs are checked in priority order. Each sign that succeeds uses up one expected customer, so a board that is checked last only gets its roll when the signs above it fail. In the guide's example, a water sign and a material sign at 75% each cut the board's real chance to about 8%. One player in the same forum found that when the appraisal sign was their only sign, customers came often; with several signs, none came for weeks. So keep only the signs the day needs. For the rest of the first week, see Probably Stolen tips and tricks.
Since Update 049, appraisal customers also leave on their own once their business is done, so they no longer clog the queue.
Reading an appraisal slip
An appraisal adds up parts of the item. One player posted a cybernetic hand worked out as base price +100, carbon material +50, no condition modifier, an EMG+ control interface +45, armored add-ons +50 and a tactical set bonus +100. The slip came back at 245, not 345, and another player explained that the tactical set bonus needs both the blade and the armor add-on. Treat the figures as one player's example, not a published price list, but the lesson holds: check every add-on before you assume a bonus, and use the +1 and -1 buttons on the estimate carefully.
Players ask for larger steps on those buttons, and one forum player points to a Workshop mod that adds them. Details on mods are on Probably Stolen mods.
Spotting fakes and counterfeit goods
The store text sets the rules of thumb: cigarette packs need a visual inspection before you resell them, rare items need proper appraisal to avoid overpaying, and you can relabel counterfeit goods and sell them to the elite. Food stamps are the best-known trap. A scavenger sells one to four of them, according to a demo-era vendors guide, and a forum player who removed their neon signs was offered a 40-credit food stamp card the next day that turned out to be fake. Hotfix 1.0.0.5 changed the lettering on one of the food stamps, and the fuel inspection guide image was improved, so older screenshots may mislead. Selling fakes on to the wrong customer is a different problem; see Probably Stolen contraband. An Aug customer no longer costs you reputation if you offer it a mislabeled item since Update 049, which is explained in Probably Stolen augs.
Why appraisal is worth it early
Two independent sources call it the safest income when you have no capital. The winning guide for From Nothing, the Hard Way advises buying and upgrading the appraisal certification as soon as it appears, because it pays without any stock. A Rock Bottom player in the Steam forum says appraisal "is free money." That makes it a natural fit for the Probably Stolen Rock Bottom start, though every scenario can use it, and how to buy the shop in Probably Stolen explains why steady income matters against rising rent. The developer lists new appraisal items among the post-launch plans, so expect the list of items to grow; track changes in Probably Stolen patch notes.
Probably Stolen Appraisal Guide FAQ
How do you get appraisal customers in Probably Stolen?
Join the appraisal board, then put its certificate in the display case. A Steam thread says customers are infrequent, and the display case guide gives a 33 to 55% roll that rises each time it fails.
Why do no appraisal customers come?
Other signs may be using up the expected customers first. The display case guide says signs are rolled in priority order, so fewer signs can mean more appraisal customers.
How is an item's appraisal value worked out?
The slip adds up the item's parts: base price, material, condition, interface and add-ons, and sometimes a set bonus. Players report that a set bonus applies only when every required add-on is present.
Are the food stamps real?
Some are fakes. Forum players report fake stamps among those offered, and hotfix 1.0.0.5 changed the lettering on one, so inspect them before you pay.