Probably Stolen contraband is what keeps the Steam shopkeeper sim tense: every illegal sale and every hidden crate adds to a file of evidence that Security can act on. This guide covers what each product line brings, how investigations end in a fine or an arrest, and how Smuggler Bays work after the 1.0.0.1 fixes.
Probably Stolen contraband and what it brings
Probably Stolen contraband is any stolen or illegal stock Security can find. Illegal sales and visible contraband build evidence against you. When Security finishes an investigation, an officer visits the next morning. A demo-era vendor guide adds that a Security requisition officer drops by on Thursdays and triggers an inspection if heat-marked or contraband items sit on your counter; the full game may differ.
If you want to stay clean, the Clean Hands achievement asks you to win without selling a stolen or contraband item. Only 0.6% of players had it on launch day.
Risk by product line
The official store text sums up the trade-offs. Here is each line and what the sources say you can do about it.
| Product line | Trouble it brings | What the sources say you can do |
|---|---|---|
| Weapons | Inspections | The Gunsmith scenario starts with a Class 1 weapon permit; the official advice is not to get caught. |
| Chemicals | Addiction | The Chemist scenario gets customers who return; avoid overdoing doses, since a returning customer can cost reputation (low-confidence demo guide). |
| Water | Liability | Mislabeling is on you; see the Probably Stolen water guide and test before you relabel. |
| Stolen goods | Raids and heat | The Fence scenario is about moving goods fast and staying invisible; hide stock in a Smuggler Bay. |
Hazardous finds are a separate headache: players dump Probably Stolen radioactive waste at the Dumping Grounds. Some sales generate less evidence. A demo-era vendor guide says lower-level chemists, mercenaries, scav addicts and shady merchants each generate only about half. Thieves also rob the shop at night, and alarm systems and insurance reduce the losses, according to a press preview.
How Security investigations work
Security builds a file on you from illegal sales and contraband it can see. After an investigation completes, an officer arrives the very next morning. You can cut how much evidence you generate: the Intimidating perk lowers it by 33%, and Joe Wild's network can remove evidence.
Players debate whether very high Security reputation stops inspections. Reports conflict, so treat any exact threshold as unverified.
Fines vs arrests
Probably Stolen contraband charges end in one of two outcomes.
The sentence is decided when the officer arrives, not when the investigation ends. That gives you a window: lowering your record first, through a fixer or the nightly decay, can turn an arrest into a fine. Security also cannot arrest you for a fine you can afford to pay.
The practical read is to keep cash on hand and clear your record before the morning visit. For why money matters, see how to buy the shop in Probably Stolen.
Hiding contraband in Smuggler Bays
Smuggler Bays hide contraband from inspections. Hotfix 1.0.0.1 fixed a bug where items inside a bay were confiscated if the bay sat in the trash can, or if a Mini Smuggler Bay had been kept behind the poster. The Hypertech Storage Bay can no longer be placed inside Smuggler Bays.
The janitorial service can swap items you leave in the trash overnight, for example into a modified smuggler chest. A launch-day player lost the result, and the developer said a safeguard is planned so forgotten items are not discarded. Check the Probably Stolen patch notes for updates. For a gentler way in, begin with Probably Stolen tips and tricks.
Probably Stolen Contraband FAQ
What counts as contraband in Probably Stolen?
The store text says contraband brings raids, and weapons bring inspections. A full list of contraband items is not published, though players report that access keycards count.
Can you avoid Security inspections completely?
The sources do not confirm that. You can reduce evidence with the Intimidating perk, Wild's removal service or Smuggler Bays, but reports that high Security reputation stops inspections conflict.
Does an investigation always end in arrest?
No. The sentence is decided on arrival, and a fixer or nightly decay can lower your record so it becomes a fine. You cannot be arrested over a fine you can afford.
Are Smuggler Bays safe after 1.0.0.1?
The confiscation bug with bays in the trash or behind the poster was fixed in 1.0.0.1. Forgotten items in the trash can are still discarded for now.